Counter-offensive in northern Ethiopia
Pro-government forces have pushed Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters out of Ethiopia's Afar region after renewed fighting raised fears of a return to a wider war, according to a humanitarian source and conflict-monitoring groups cited by AFP. ACLED reported that the towns of Abala, Erebti and Megale were retaken, while the Critical Threats Project said the Ethiopian military had largely repelled the rebel offensive.
The fighting began after TPLF attacks into Afar and Amhara, according to the supplied report. Ethiopian forces subsequently launched a counter-offensive toward Tigray's regional capital, Mekelle, along multiple routes. A pro-government militia also claimed it had captured Alula Aba Nega Airport outside Mekelle, but that assertion could not be independently confirmed because access for journalists was restricted and communications were disrupted.
The distinction between monitored territorial changes and unverified battlefield claims is important. Front lines can shift rapidly, and statements from armed groups are part of the conflict itself. The airport claim therefore remains an allegation rather than an established fact.
A humanitarian source said TPLF forces had withdrawn from Afar after raiding and damaging areas they left. The same source described continuing shortages and limited food access in the north. The account indicates that regaining territory has not resolved the civilian emergency created by the renewed fighting.
Conflict strains regional relations
The escalation has coincided with a sharp deterioration in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea. Addis Ababa accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF, expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara. Eritrea responded by saying it would sever diplomatic ties. Ethiopia and Egypt also expelled diplomats as tensions grew against the background of their long-running disagreement over Ethiopia's Nile dam.
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael characterised the conflict as regional and connected it to control of the Red Sea. The African Union said it was concerned by rising tensions among Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt and called for maximum restraint. Those diplomatic ruptures increase the risk that a domestic conflict could draw in neighbouring states or become entangled with existing regional disputes.
Reports of explosions in Addis Ababa have added to the uncertainty. A diplomatic source told AFP that drone strikes were the most likely explanation for blasts near the defence ministry and an army base, but said imagery and independent confirmation were unavailable. The Ethiopian government and military had not commented.
The verified picture is therefore limited but serious: fighting has expanded, pro-government forces have regained ground in Afar, humanitarian access remains poor and diplomatic relations are breaking down. Claims about specific strikes or facilities require further confirmation before they can be treated as fact.
